拜登上台後，白宮摒除了特朗普時期誇誇其談、不幹實事的作風，各種政策重上軌道，特別是應付新冠肺炎和處理肺炎帶來的經濟後遺症，都顯得積極進取。也許由於壓制疫情和提振經濟是當務之急，其他政策都要讓路。以外交政策為例，拜登在上任約兩個星期後才在國務院作簡單的闡釋，但其中有關外貿方面着墨不多。不過，我們仍可以從拜登在競選時對有關問題的論述、和他上台後執行的政策，了解他的政府怎樣處理美國的外貿問題。

冠狀病毒病疫情初期，一眾經濟學家預測，2020年全球將陷入1930年代大蕭條以來最嚴重衰退，但後來則修訂為與2007至2009年金融海嘯情況相若。例如根據2020年5月《華爾街日報》的調查，美國經濟學家普遍預測，同年美國經濟將收縮6.6%，屬大蕭條以來之最；聯邦儲備局官員隨於6月預測，收縮幅度為6.5%。

有留意國際金融事務的讀者，除了知道互惠基金、對沖基金、私募基金、風險投資等概念外，一定也會注意到主權財富基金（Sovereign Wealth Fund）。香港人最熟悉的可能是新加坡的淡馬錫，它亦是渣打銀行的主要股東。本文的目的是介紹主權財富基金，順帶談及香港財政儲備如何增值的問題。

過去兩年來，香港經歷了內外環境巨變。社會運動影響下，本港經濟持續低迷，加上中美貿易談判曲折、新冠肺炎疫情衝擊 、世界經濟下行，無疑令本地困局雪上加霜。失業人數不斷攀升，青年失業率更遠高於其他年齡組別。若要走出逆境，年輕一代需要多元發展，而粵港澳大灣區建設正好為他們開闢一條發展的新跑道。

在2018年年中至2019年年底期間，中美貿易戰是全球經濟及金融市場焦點所在。雙方就進口對方產品徵收的關稅，以及輪流在兩國舉行的多次貿易談判，均牽動市場的投資氣氛。經過多番努力，中美最終達成一些共識，並於去年1月簽署第一階段貿易協議。但隨着新冠肺炎的出現和美國的總統大選，貿易戰已不再是重要的議題，媒體亦甚少提及。當然，這並不代表中美經濟摩擦已告一段落，只是轉移到其他戰場而已。

On Thursday, January 21, the online dialogue between Mr. Stephen A. Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO and Co-founder of Blackstone, and Professor Hongbin Cai, Dean of HKU Business School, attracted over 500 attendees from around the world. As an event kicking off the School’s 20th Anniversary celebration, the dialogue between two masterminds perfectly aligns with the School’s commitment to engaging globally impactful academic and business leaders in cultivating thought leadership and inspiring our young leaders. During the event, the two speakers discussed insightful topics ranging from management skills to global economic prospects.

HKU Business School Associate Professor Dr. Jayson Jia and his team have developed a model to accurately predict COVID-19’s spread and assess risk using only mobile phone data, and to explore people’s response to the pandemic.

Article by Associate Professor Dr Stephen Ching and Research Assistant Mr Peter Mu in Ming Pao Daily.

Professor Heiwai Tang, Professor of Economics, was interviewed by HK01 about HK’s ranking as a free economy.

香港經濟面臨嚴峻困境，令人憂慮貧窮問題勢將變本加厲。 2018年，全港貧窮人口為140.6萬，在恆常現金政策介入後，則降至102.4萬，其中90,100人為18–29歲青年，佔整體貧窮人口8.8%，比率更在過去3年持續上升【註】。政府為此於2016年設立青年發展基金及青少年空間共享計劃，2017及2018年施政報告亦提出加強對年青人追求創新和創業的支援，並鼓勵年青人開拓境外（如大灣區）的發展機會。

The article 《博弈論 七十年》 was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column 「龍虎山下」

Prof. Hongbin Cai, Dean of HKU Business School was interviewed by Master Insight on how dominant of Hong Kong tertiary Institutions among the global critical situation.

The majority of fledgling businesses fly straight into the unforgiving rule of natural selection – only the fittest and strongest survive. In terms of start-ups, the rule is even more merciless. What can start-ups do to succeed in this brutal environment? Professor David Tse, Stelux Professor of Marketing and Director of the Contemporary Marketing Centre at the HKU Business School, believes Breakthrough Innovation (BI) is an effective strategy for success. Simply put, BI fosters strategies that help service new and under-served markets.

Estimating the hazard function of customer patience time has become a necessary component of effective operational planning such as workforce staffing and scheduling in call centers. When customers get served, their patience times are right-censored. In addition, the exact event times in call centers are sometimes unobserved and naturally binned into time intervals, due to the design of data collection systems. We develop a TunT (Transform-unTransform) estimator that turns the difficult problem of nonparametric hazard function estimation into a regression problem on binned and right-censored data. Our approach starts with binning event times and transforming event count data with a mean-matching transformation, which enables a simpler characterization of the heteroscedastic variance function. A nonparametric regression technique is then applied to the transformed data. Finally, the estimated regression function is back-transformed to yield an estimator for the original hazard function. The proposed estimation procedure is illustrated using call center data to reveal interesting customer patience behavior, and health insurance plan trial data to compare the effect between treatment and control groups. The numerical study shows that our approach yields more accurate estimates and better staffing decisions than existing methods.

近日最矚目的國際新聞，莫過於特朗普總統頒布行政命令，限制美國國民和企業在45天後停止與TikTok和騰訊微信的交易。此前國務卿蓬佩奧已提出了對中國的「清潔網絡」行動。

樓價過高一向是香港亟待解決的問題之一。觀乎香港自1997年回歸後的22個財政年度（1997/98至2018/19），四類主要私人物業售價指數升幅可觀，私人住宅上升超過130%，私人寫字樓上升逾150%，零售業樓宇升幅約210%，分層工廠大廈增幅更逾420%。樓價升勢與地價高企關係密不可分。

Using a comprehensive sample of credit card data from a leading Chinese bank, we show that government bureaucrats receive 16% higher credit lines than non-bureaucrats with similar income and demographics, but their accounts experience a significantly higher likelihood of delinquency and debt forgiveness. Regions associated with greater credit provision to bureaucrats open more branches and receive more deposits from the local government. After staggered corruption crackdowns of provincial-level political officials, the new credit cards originated to bureaucrats in exposed regions do not enjoy a credit line premium, and bureaucrats’ delinquency and reinstatement rates are similar to those of non-bureaucrats.