“Electoral Competition and U.S. Tariffs: An Empirical Investigation” by Miaojie YU
Author:
Miaojie YU
University of Hong Kong
In this paper I investigate empirically how trade policy affects vote pattern in the U.S. The greater labor union percentage is more likely to result in election of labor friendly democrat politicians, and is also likely to effectively lobby for protection. This predicts a positive correlation between U.S. tariffs and democratic vote share. Using district-level panel data over the years 1982-2000, both the fixed effect and the TSLS estimates provide strong evidence for a prediction at the national and regional levels: tariffs have fallen over time, along with this, many states have shifted towards more Republican votes
