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Events

Home Events
economics
19Mar

“Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers” by Dr. Collin B Raymond

Monday, 19 March 2018 | 4:30pm - 6pm
KK910
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Economics Seminar

Author:

  • Collin B Raymond
    Purdue University

 

This paper provides evidence of persistent overconfidence among managers in a firm, who face a high-powered competitive incentive scheme, and have very detailed feedback as well as substantial experience. We measure overconfidence relative to the benchmark of a Bayesian model of belief formation, which makes predictions based on efficient use of managers’ histories of past outcomes. We can reject that manager predictions are consistent with the model with a high level of confidence. We turn next to investigating a potential underlying mechanism, posited by models of motivated beliefs: biased memory (Benabou and Tirole, 2003). We elicit manager recall of recent past performance, and find that managers who performed poorly tend to be inaccurate, and have errors that are asymmetric, in the direction of recalling better than actual performance. We then show empirically that these biased memories of the past help explain overconfident predictions for the future. This provides some of the first field evidence of the role of biased memory in sustaining persistent overconfidence.

"Innovation Waves, Investor Sentiment, and Mergers" by Professor Paolo Fulghieri

Monday, 19 March 2018

"Facility-Level Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Local Socio-Political Factors in the United States" by Dr. Glen W. S. Dowell

Tuesday, 20 March 2018

Other Events

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21Jan
Faculty Level | Event
Insights for Young Leaders in a New Global Era
21 Jan 2021 | 20:00 – 21:00
Online via Facebook and Zoom
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8Jan
Accounting and Law | Seminar
“Multidimensional Information and Rational Inattention” by Ms. Keri P. Hu
Friday, 8 January 2021 | 10:40 a.m. — 12:10 p.m.
online seminar
Ms. Peicong (Keri) Hu
“Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers” by Dr. Collin B Raymond
Monday, 19 March 20184:30pm - 6pm
KK910
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