“What’s Wrong with China’s Consumption, Investment and Inflation Statistics?” by Prof. Tian ZHU
Prof. Tian ZHU
Professor of Economics
China Europe International Business School
Much of the debate with regard to the state of China’s economy is based uncritically on the official statistics. But there are serious, systematic flaws in China’s GDP statistics. I will discuss in some details why the expenditure composition of China’s GDP cannot be trusted as the basis for both academic research and policy analysis. More specifically, I will show how China’s consumption figures have been systematically underestimated, and investment figures overestimated. I will also show how in recent economic downturn China’s inflation rate (GDP deflator) and consequently the extent of the downturn have been significantly underestimated.